Okay, I will make a few predictions in this post.
I try to avoid making public predictions as much as possible, because it’s so difficult to do. Also, I admit RIGHT NOW, that I may be wrong on any number of these predictions – or on ALL of them.
I will be very clearly separating the FACTS from the OPINIONS & PREDICTIONS, going forward.
Opinion:
You should invest some money in stocks right now.
Fact:
The stock market overall, historically, has actually ALWAYS gone up in the long term.
Despite market crashes, the S&P 500 (top 500 stocks) has always provided positive returns for EVERY 10 year period.
Here it is, over its entire lifespan:
Opinion:
You should NOT invest money that you will need in the next 5 years – but if it’s a small enough amount that you could do without it for 5 years, you should invest at least some.
The reason I say that is that the market COULD crash – notice those dips, above – and if you need to withdraw cash soon during a recession, you would need to sell your stocks and take a loss. However, if you can wait it out over time (5 years is a pretty good amount of time) it’s very, very likely that the stock market will have more than recovered by that time.
Fact:
There are totally free ways to invest, today, that you could do in minutes, if not seconds, if you so desired.
The app Robinhood, for example allows you to invest – from your phone – in a manner some would even describe as “very easily.” (Notice by my phrasing – we’re still in the “fact” section). In addition, it now allows you to invest in portions of stocks without buying the whole thing. So if you wanted to risk a total of exactly $5, then you could do that.
You can invest in the market as a whole (through use of what are called “index funds” which allow you to buy a tiny bit of a lot of different stocks, all from typing in a single ticker symbol – e.g., “SPY.” There are people do this in order to help achieve something called “diversification.”)
On the app I mentioned, you could invest in a partial share of an index fund. So you could risk $5 on the market as a whole, and if you wished, leave it in for a long time.
^Ok wow, I took pains phrasing every sentence of that to make sure it was all incontrovertibly true…
–Here are some predictions–
Do not trust me on this.
Do you know why I say that? Because predicting shit is really hard.
Even for top-notch experts, predictions are really hard to make.
All predictions presented are opinions.
So think about them for yourself, and see if you agree.
(Also, keep in mind, the remainder of this article was written solely with the intent of helping you create as much investment return as possible, NOT with the intent of making any political or ethical arguments.)
Got that? Ok.
Prediction:
Biden will probably win the general election.
(He’s up by 11 points nationally, we’re down to the wire, a lot of people are already voting, people didn’t like Trump’s last debate, people are sick of Covid, most people feel Trump mishandled it, Trump even contracted Covid, Biden doesn’t have nearly the same low popularity that Hillary had in 2016.)
I could very, very well be wrong here. He could lose. Just trying to leave emotions at the door and help you make money.
Prediction:
A Biden win will be good for the economy as a whole, AND the stock market specifically.
Stocks like stability, and Trump is anything but stable. While Trump’s corporate tax cuts were probably good for the stock market (but not necessarily for individuals, or the economy as a whole), the Covid pandemic certainly has not been good for stocks (with a few notable exceptions – think Amazon). Neither have his foreign policy blunders. (Think – the market volatility that occurred when we found ourselves worried about the possibility of being on the brink of a new war simply because of some tweets).
A Biden presidency will likely provide more stability, and less fear of the entire world shifting rapidly over a single tweet. That basic stability is good for stocks. It is likely that with more Democratic leadership, we will see continued stimulus spending, which is also generally very good for the stock market and the general economy.
A Biden presidency will likely lead to better handling of the Covid pandemic, also good for the stock market.
And even if Biden doesn’t win, American stocks are incredibly resilient. Again, Amazon is doing just fine.
In summary, not only are stocks are almost always good to invest in (if you’re willing to be without the money for a long time time – to buy and hold), but NOW could be a particularly good buying opportunity, because the next 4 years may turn out to be better much than the last 4 years.
(And, even if neither of those near-term predictions happen, stock tend to go up in the long run. You gotta be willing to buy and hold though. I’m talking 5 years at least.)
Prediction:
Amazon (AMZN) is a good buy.
I’ve never publicly given specific stock picking advice, and generally try to avoid it. Especially because it’s very easy to look like an idiot if you end up being wrong.
But here’s why I like Amazon.
It’s, overall, THE place to shop online for anything.
It’s EXTREMELY easy to return anything at any Amazon locker or Whole Foods (Have you ever tried it? It’s unbelievably easy.)
…which makes you feel safer buying from them.
In fact, why buy anywhere else, when you can effortlessly return anything you don’t like bought on Amazon?
And during this pandemic, you’ve learned a lot of things. For example, you’ve learned that more work than you thought can in fact be done from home, virtually. This may be a sticky habit.
You’ve also learned that a lot more of your in-store purchases can be made online – for example, on Amazon.
Also, Amazon has a high quality streaming service with really good content (eg, “The Boys,” super well-done show, check it out).
Also, a ton of people pay for subscriptions to Amazon Prime.
Amazon ALSO has a really nice in-person grocery shopping at Whole Foods (a store which is not only intelligently targeted toward high-wealth people – where most of the money is in America – but is also very health conscious and organic, a trend I think will only continue to grow.)
AND, because one can just about buy everything from Amazon, it’s a no-brainer to sign up for an Amazon credit card: zero monthly fees and gives you an immediate $100 of store credit with 5% cashback on all Amazon purchases, keeping you coming back – as if there wasn’t enough reason to by everything on Amazon already.
So, Amazon has a very user-friendly ecosystem for its customers which creates a ton of value and keeps people involved.
Amazon also has an average 94% buy rating according to Robinhood, from 48 analysts
It’s a very profitable company.
And it’s resilient in the face of a pandemic.
NOTE and DISCLAIMER: I put my money where my mouth is, and have invested in Amazon.
Risks I see: Possible government intervention if they get too big could spook investors in the short term, or could even be significantly damaging long-term. Don’t invest money you can’t lose.
Message me if you have any other thoughts on any of this!
In summary….
THESIS:
It’s a good idea to get involved (with a small amount of money you could afford to be without for a long time) in stocks, right now.
You can buy a partial share of the S&P 500 (ticker symbol: SPY) right now on Robinhood.
Amazon is also a good buy. (Ticker symbol AMZN).
If you want more help on any of this, I have an excellent online course on the topic. I’m not gonna link it here because I don’t want this post to just be a big advertisement for it, but you can message me if you’re interested! (Yes, go over and use the Contact page, I’ve made it easy!)
If you do actually go to the effort of reaching out to hit me up, I’ll personally message you a ridiculous discount.
*not entirely sure how long that offer will stand
Go make money.
Peace.
-Dolan